How global procurement data forecast the Iran crisis — and what it reveals about the supply chain shock wave that followed. Three datasets. Three timeframes. A single, coherent signal chain that ran eight weeks ahead of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Within days, the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply transits — was effectively closed, triggering what the International Energy Agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
What the public did not know was that Valan's three-dataset intelligence platform had been registering extraordinary signals for weeks. Eight weeks before the first bomb fell, Valan's Sentinel dataset recorded 1,189 high-confidence defence procurement signals across 53 countries in a single week — eight times the typical weekly volume. In the weeks that followed, trade flow data showed unprecedented surges in warship imports, radar equipment and munitions across NATO member states. And when the conflict finally began, Valan's global tender database recorded the largest cross-sector procurement shock wave in the dataset's history — with one critical, counter-intuitive finding: the sectors most critical to the crisis almost entirely disappeared from public tender pipelines.
This brief sets out the three-dataset signal chain: what Sentinel showed in December 2025, what trade data confirmed in February 2026, and what the tender cascade reveals about how governments respond — and how they signal distress — in a global supply chain crisis.
"Procurement data is the earliest leading indicator of defence posture shifts — before budget announcements, before policy speeches, before earnings calls. When governments panic-buy, it shows up in tenders first."
Valan's Sentinel dataset aggregates defence procurement intelligence from 16 primary sources across 139 countries, including Foreign Military Sales notifications (US DSCA), Congressional Research Service defence reports, national ministry procurement disclosures, and selected trade ministry outputs. Each record is enriched at ingestion with ticker resolution, forward commitment classification, and civil society cross-signal scoring.
In the five weeks running from late October 2025 through late January 2026, weekly Sentinel volumes ran at 66–147 records per week — consistent with a baseline period of elevated but not exceptional NATO procurement activity. Then, in the week of 29 December 2025, the dataset recorded a step-change:
| Metric | Baseline (weekly avg.) | Week of 29 Dec 2025 | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Records | ~100 | 1,189 | ~11.9x |
| Countries covered | 1–2 | 53 | — |
| High-signal records | ~95 | 1,189 | ~12.5x |
| Forward commitments | ~15 | 499+ | — |
| Total contract value | ~$50–80Bn | $436Bn | ~6–8x |
The spike was driven almost entirely by two US government sources: DSCA Foreign Military Sales notifications and CRS Defence reports. The geographic breadth — 53 countries in a single week — is without precedent in the Sentinel dataset history. This was not a routine procurement cycle. It was the United States pre-arming its alliance network at scale, and it is visible only in procurement data.
The Philippines warrants particular attention. On 29 December 2025, the Philippines received $11.5Bn in US Foreign Military Sales notifications — 48 records, primarily naval and air defence systems. On 24 March 2026, less than four weeks after the Strait of Hormuz closed, President Marcos declared a national energy emergency — the first such declaration by any nation globally. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East. Sentinel had flagged the country eight weeks before the crisis.
| Country | Source | Records | Value (USD) | Fwd. Commitments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA (domestic) | CRS_DEF | 305 | $60.9Bn | 199 |
| UK | UK_NAO_DEF | 59 | $65.8Bn | 30 |
| Israel | US_DSCA | 37 | $25.0Bn | 20 |
| Poland | US_DSCA | 46 | $29.8Bn | 18 |
| Egypt | US_DSCA | 18 | $15.4Bn | 11 |
| Philippines | US_DSCA | 48 | $11.5Bn | 23 |
| Japan | US_DSCA | 19 | $9.7Bn | 12 |
| Estonia | US_DSCA | 12 | $8.1Bn | 5 |
| Finland | US_DSCA | 37 | $2.65Bn | 36 (97%) |
| Qatar | US_DSCA | 13 | $1.96Bn | 12 |
† Finland's 97% forward commitment rate signals contractual pipeline lock-in, not just intent.
Sentinel's enrichment pipeline resolves procurement records to publicly traded equities where contractual relationships can be established. The forward commitment values below represent contractually locked future revenue visible in procurement filings before any public earnings guidance or analyst estimate revision:
| Ticker | Exchange | Signals | Total Value | Fwd. Commitments | Fwd. Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | NYSE | 97 | $62.3Bn | 46 | $34.1Bn |
| LMT | NYSE | 74 | $32.7Bn | 30 | $9.2Bn |
| BA | NYSE | 36 | $12.8Bn | 18 | $9.0Bn |
| GD | NYSE | 19 | $12.9Bn | 14 | $8.8Bn |
| LDO.MI | Borsa Italiana | 8 | $5.8Bn | 3 | $5.4Bn |
| 009830.KS | KRX | 1 | $5.0Bn | 1 | $5.0Bn |
| NOC | NYSE | 11 | $4.7Bn | 7 | $4.1Bn |
| HO.PA | Euronext | 10 | $12.6Bn | 4 | $3.2Bn |
| HII | NYSE | 4 | $3.4Bn | 3 | $3.0Bn |
| RHM.DE | XETRA | 5 | $0.7Bn | 3 | $0.7Bn |
Note: Rheinmetall (RHM.DE) appearing in December 2025 Sentinel data is notable — it signals European sovereign procurement independent of US FMS channels, consistent with Germany's accelerated Zeitenwende rearmament programme.
Valan's Sentinel trade dataset (fin_sentinel_trade) monitors bilateral trade flows across 23 defence-relevant HS code chapters, tracking year-on-year anomalies against a rolling historical baseline. HIGH-signal anomalies require a statistically significant deviation from the bilateral mean, not merely an absolute volume threshold.
In February 2026 — the final full month before the strikes — the dataset recorded a cluster of unprecedented HIGH-signal anomalies concentrated in Norway, consistent with NATO pre-positioning activity:
| HS Description | Reporter | Partner | Type | YoY Change | Conflict Adj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warships & military vessels | Norway | USA | IMPORT SURGE | +248,057% | No |
| Bombs, grenades, munitions | Norway | Greece | EXPORT SURGE | +56,398% | No |
| Radar & navigational apparatus | Norway | Netherlands | IMPORT SURGE | +16,434% | No |
| Radar & navigational apparatus | Norway | Switzerland | EXPORT SURGE | +8,682% | No |
| Broadcast/comms apparatus | Norway | Israel | EXPORT SURGE | +7,370% | YES |
| Broadcast/comms apparatus | Norway | Finland | IMPORT SURGE | +7,522% | No |
| Munitions & ordnance | Norway | Canada | IMPORT SURGE | +4,059% | No |
| Radar & navigational apparatus | Norway | New Zealand | IMPORT SURGE | +3,882% | No |
The Norway–Israel broadcast/communications apparatus surge is flagged conflict_adjacent=TRUE in the dataset. The combination of warship registration (+248,057% YoY), munitions export acceleration, and radar procurement across multiple NATO bilateral pairs in a single month constitutes a trade-data confirmation of the Sentinel procurement signal. None of this was visible in public markets.
Valan's global tender database covers 350+ procurement sources across 140 countries in 8 languages, classified to the proprietary VPV taxonomy (27 sectors, 666 codes, 50,000+ crosswalk mappings to CPV/NAICS/ISIC/UNSPSC). The following analysis compares the 35 days before 28 February 2026 against the 35 days following it across all 27 VPV Level 1 sectors.
| VPV Sector | Pre-War Tenders | Post-War Tenders | Change | Post-War Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IT Services & Software Development | 12,311 | 31,104 | +153% | €474Bn |
| Mechanical & Electrical Installation | 8,978 | 21,337 | +138% | €284Bn |
| Vehicles & Transport Equipment | 23,297 | 48,661 | +109% | €324Bn |
| Industrial Machinery & Equipment | 85,063 | 175,699 | +107% | €202Bn |
| Civil Engineering & Infrastructure | 11,198 | 22,309 | +99% | €1.03Tn |
| Medical, Pharma & Laboratory | 31,572 | 52,639 | +67% | €296Bn |
| Environmental & Waste Management | 5,563 | 9,126 | +64% | €46Bn |
| Transport & Logistics Services | 5,096 | 7,494 | +47% | €274Bn |
| Security & Defence Services | 13,309 | 19,085 | +43% | €138Bn |
| Financial & Insurance Services | 2,766 | 3,493 | +26% | €44Bn |
| Building Construction | 45,795 | 49,231 | +8% | €186Bn |
| Food, Beverages & Catering | 51,606 | 31,093 | -40% | — |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities | 135,437 | 49,116 | -64% | — |
The most analytically significant observation in the tender data is not what surged — it is what collapsed. Energy, Fuel & Utilities tenders fell 64% post-war. Food, Beverages & Catering fell 40%. These are the two sectors most directly impacted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
This is not a paradox. It is a signal in itself.
When governments face genuine supply emergencies for critical commodities, they do not publish open competitive tenders. They invoke emergency direct procurement powers, bypassing public procurement processes entirely. The disappearance of energy and food tenders from public pipelines is not evidence that governments stopped buying — it is evidence that the procurement became invisible, moving into emergency channels that standard market intelligence cannot observe.
What governments did tender for was everything downstream: infrastructure hardening, fleet replacement, backup power installation, medical stockpiling, logistics diversification. The Civil Engineering spike to €1.03 trillion — a 99% increase — represents governments simultaneously commissioning LNG terminal expansion, port hardening, strategic storage facilities, and grid resilience projects across 140 countries.
"The signal is not in what they bought. It is in what went silent."
Across three datasets and three distinct timeframes, the procurement signal chain is coherent and sequential:
| Timeframe | Dataset | Signal | Advance Notice |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Sentinel | 53-country defence procurement surge. RTX +$34Bn fwd. commitments. Philippines flagged. | ~8 weeks |
| Feb 2026 | Trade Flows | Norway warship imports +248,057% YoY. Munitions, radar surges across NATO pairs. | ~2–4 weeks |
| Post 28 Feb | Tenders | Cross-sector cascade. Energy/food silence. €1.03Tn civil engineering surge. | Contemporaneous |
No single commercial data provider has cross-sector visibility of this kind. Commodity desks see energy prices. Defence analysts see military tenders. Satellite imagery providers see factory utilisation. Nobody is showing a macro fund the full procurement shock wave moving through a sovereign government's entire spending apparatus simultaneously — across 140 countries, in real time, classified to a consistent taxonomy.
Accurately isolating defence procurement from broader security and civilian spending requires classification expertise that most procurement datasets lack. The same expertise that isolates a Rheinmetall contract from a municipal security guard tender also isolates a strategic LNG storage contract from a routine facilities management award. The classification layer is the alpha.
| Dataset | Records | Sources | Countries | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sentinel (Defence Procurement) | ~40,000 | 16 | 139 | Daily |
| Sentinel Trade (Comtrade Anomalies) | 1.8M+ | UN Comtrade | 173 | Monthly |
| Sentinel Recruitment (TS/SCI) | 5,056 | 17 | USA primarily | Daily |
| Horizon (Civil Society) | 570,000+ | 107 | 190 | Daily |
| Tenders (Global Procurement) | 1.34M+ active | 350+ | 140 | Daily |
| Awards (Historical Contracts) | 800,000+ | 350+ | 140 | Daily |
All tender and award records are classified to Valan's proprietary VPV taxonomy (27 sectors, 3 levels, 666 codes) with crosswalk mappings to CPV, NAICS, ISIC, and UNSPSC. Ticker enrichment uses a multi-stage resolution pipeline including ISIN-GLEIF matching (64,000+ international matches), international alias expansion (691 entries, 24 major conglomerates), and monthly FX normalisation to EUR. All values are EUR-normalised at time of publication.